Weekly Market Wrap ep #6

 By this week, the Nifty has entered the correction phase. As of now, the Nifty corrected be around 10% from its peak. As I told last week the Nifty was almost flat for first two days of this week, and then fell by the weekend. Friday was a holiday, so until Thursday. The Nifty fell by around 2.35% in this week. 

Now I feel that, the war has a less impact in this week’s market correction. The correction was triggered mainly because of reasons like overvaluation, the stimulus package in China, US Election results, and so on. 

As the US inflation is under control, we cannot expect a rate cut this December. This is what many analysts expect. So, investors find the US Treasury bonds slightly attractive. 

The FIIs were the net sellers even in this week. They have moved money from India to countries like US, China, and Japan. In fact, investors feel the Japanese markets to be undervalued. 

Currently there is nothing positive for the Indian markets, which can make the Nifty to reach its previous highs. I still believe the markets to be flat and declining. Even in the technical chart, the Nifty broke the strong resistance at 24000 points. There are many good quality stocks that have come to good valuation. Investors must try to grab the opportunity to accumulate fundamentally strong value stocks at low valuation. 

This time, the quarterly results of even the big companies were not satisfactory. This creates an impression as if the economy has slowed down. Even the consumer price inflation [CPI]has increased. This is the reason which makes investors believe that the rate cuts by RBI cannot happen for atleast next 3 months. 

Every economy will experience a phase like this. But it will cool down in one or two quarters mostly. So, many investors expect the markets to get consolidated or remain in down trend for next 3 months. Even I expect the same. But this week, the markets must probably consolidate or fell further. There is least possibility for the markets to reach its all time high. 

Gold:

Further, many investors are worried about the gold prices. The gold price declines only because of rising Dollar and increasing bond yields, and the cooling inflation in US. If the INR also reduced we won’t feel the fall in gold prices in India. But globally gold prices could correct even more. It would probably take 6 months or more for the gold prices to return to its upward trend. This is what many experts believe. The reason is, the experts believe the inflation to rise slightly in US due to the cut in US tax rates. Rise in inflation will again trigger the prices of gold, as the investors will find gold as a safe haven asset during such periods.
Even if the Central Banks started to accumulating more, the price may reverse immediately. 
But the long term picture is always positive for gold.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *